Amazingly, he is not the first person to have thought of odds and impacts of scenarios in this way. He might start with the decades-long modeling project executed by the Yale School of Forestry and Department of Economics to do for real what he is showing on a whiteboard. For that matter, he might have read the UN IPCC WG2 and WG3 reports which reference a lot of relevant research on this question.

Here are some (example) problems with his video:

1. His “bad case” is overblown and rhetorical. Under a reasonable scenario for global economic and population growth (Scenario A1B), the IPCC projects about 2.8C increase in global temperatures by 2100. According to any competent modelers (for example, the Yale project), this would lead to about break-even net global economic impacts, i.e., the positive benefits of warming would about equal the negative impacts. It’s only when you get to warming of about 4C in 22nd and 23rd centuries that you, according to the IPCC, see a net reduction in global GDP of about 1- 5%. That’s a lot of money, but it’s hardly the Armageddon that he is describing.

2. According to the IPCC, no global climate model currently predicts any of the disaster scenarios he describes for the next century.

3. Without any quantitative consideration of odds of an outcome, you could apply this same 2X2 matrix argument to the risk of space aliens descending from the sky and killing everybody. Why don’t we have crash programs that risk global depression against space aliens and a meteor strike and a global pandemic based on a modified version of Avian Flu and, and, and, and….? Because the list of such anxieties is endless and our resources are finite.

“There is no credible evidence that it is due to mankind and carbon dioxide.”

About two weeks ago the head of NASA expressed doubts that Global Warming is a significant problem. His statement was based on the thirty or so years that NASA has been monitoring the temperatures in earth’s upper atmosphere, which have shown little or no change. Although he did point out that the surface temperatures have shown a steady increase.

I will also note that last week he announced that he regretted his statement, but he did not retract it.

The point is if the head of NASA, likely the world’s most important research organization is uncertain, then modern science is obviously confused, which maybe costing all of us time we don’t have to burn.

On Thursday, October 23rd, 2003, a NASA press release of composite images taken of earth’s polar ice caps from 1979-2003 showed that they have melted about 50% over two decades, and the effect appears to be accelerating.

Scientific confusion invites those radio talk ‘Know It All, Guys’ to claim Global Warming is just another “normal” climatic phase. The thing NASA should be pointing out is that no normal climatic shift could ever melt half of earth’s ice in 20 years. This is extremely abnormal.

A meltdown this rapid would be the result of a climatic disaster, such as a massive volcano, a jumbo jet sized meteor or maybe something like the removal of earth’s thick thermal insulation which also according to NASA, covered over 80% more of earth’s land surface, 200 years ago, then today.

Not only can children prove at least 8 very powerful cooling effects that earth has just lost, but vegetation eats the CO2 that many theory scientists are solely blaming for global warming.

The carbon taken directly from CO2 is one of the two main ingredients plants use to make their food. According to ed.weinipeg.com, the web’s interactive encyclopedia, the average tree removes 26 pounds of CO2 from the air every year, and earth just lost billions and billions of these CO2 eaters.

I’m not saying the burning of organic compounds is not a big problem, but today’s levels of CO2 could still be mathematically balanced with enough new atmospheric photosynthesis occurring, which may still need to be 36% more then was occurring 200 years ago.

There may be a few ways to actually get that much vegetation growing long before we could ever launch a space umbrella. And unlike the umbrella these methods would make a lot of money for a lot of companies and pay a lot of workers, they could also produce millions of tons of food and construction materials, create typical vacation paradises and greatly reduce other pollutants from earth’s air, while also cooling it.
They could even help lower earth’s raising sea levels, and replenish endangered species.

Out of the 8 other cooling factors that I could design experiments simple enough for third graders, several lost ones seem to add far more cooling then today’s 36% higher CO2 levels can physically hold of additional heat.

The massive expansion of oxygen gas released from water during atmospheric photosynthesis has not been accounted for in global warming theories, and some people calling themselves scientists even deny it happens. Yet only a few denied that oxygen gas was released from a dense liquid that was already 82% oxygen. (H2O has 2 H atoms for each O but one O is many times heaver then 1 H atom).

I am a manufacture and I work with other engineers that see this as clearly as the things we build. This is because they only use real science, no time to make up theories, and the thermal effects of expansion and contraction are a very large part of many engineer’s daily work lives.

Land plants mix the carbon they get from the CO2 with the other main ingredient of their plant food, hydrogen, to create ‘carbohydrates’. They then convert these into sugars, for use and storage. Our bodies also convert carbohydrates into sugars. Somebody called me an idiot, saying “plants convert carbohydrates into glucose, not sugar”. Save your email, simply speaking they are the same thing.

Plants do not use the oxygen left over after removing the H2, from the H2O, nor do they combine it with another dense compound, nor do they store it, nor do they burn it, they just release it into the atmosphere to provide earth’s animals with fresh new oxygen gas to breath. Any encyclopedia will verify that Photosynthesis is responsible for at least 99% of the oxygen in earth’s atmosphere.

Mathematically this expansion is so massive it would have been canceling out a tremendous amount of heat right above earth’s surface, if we had not have just removed 80% of earth’s thickest vegetation.
This is because ‘Expansion’ is nature’s only one step supper cooling method.

Unlike the similar cooling effect from evaporation (called ‘transpiration’ in plants) the O2 gas will never condense back into a liquid at earth temps, as all of the evaporated water eventually will.
This means that the expansion of O from photosynthesis is 100% efficient at cooling the air near earth’s surface (where the problem is) as water vapors eventually re-compress its heat when it condenses.
The bigger difference is that most of the Atmospheric Photosynthesis is now gone, and the rate of evaporation appears to be up, do to higher temps and more storms, if the Weather Channel is correct.

This roughly 800 time expansion of O from H20 makes brand new atmosphere which contains only enough heat to balance its mass (to surrounding temps ) when compressed 800 times, so this newly released gas instantly draws radiant heat from the hot air, right above earth’s surface, to re-warm it.

I have had many denials that this expansion even occurs, or that expansion even cools, but none were similar or provided any evidence beyond their words. Not one offered a simple way to demonstrate how a dense matter, without being consumed, attached or used, converts to a very sparse state, of the same mass, without expansion, no matter what they call the process.

For matter to go from a very dense state to a very sparse one without expansion, alteration, reattachment or consumption, would mean that science has discovered ‘completely vanishing matter’.

If you want to ask someone else about this, find a clever engineer, or science loving sharp third grader, but don’t ask a science theory writer, this effect is about as basic as effects can be, and they missed it.

Go to earthfitness.blogspot.com and read about many other lost cooling effects that theory science has not accounted for or apparently even noticed. If I can’t back my words with real experiments and or natural examples that are simple enough for children to verify, do not believe me.

I also list over a dozen ways we can start cooling earth back down, right now, not in maybe 30 years if we are lucky enough that the solar winds don’t blow the Space Umbrella out of the solar system.
They are part of the article “Space Umbrella vs. Desert Irrigation” at
Steven Craig