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MATHEMATICS, SIMULATION AND MODELLING
@RISK for Project
18 May 2007
Have you ever worked on a multimillion-dollar project where the project plan was little more than a collection of guesses? Or managed a project where the number of risks made the project unmanageable? Every year numerous projects finish late or over budget. Some are simply cancelled outright because the project manager had no tools to assess and manage risk. @RISK for Project helps project managers realise the effects of uncertainty, communicate realistic project forecasts and allocate resources effectively.
@RISK for Project Shows You Many Possible Outcomes
@RISK for Project uses Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your project – and tells you how likely they are to occur. This means that you finally have, if not perfect information, the most complete picture possible. You can determine which tasks are most important and then manage those risks appropriately. While no software package can predict the future, @RISK for Project can help you choose the best strategy based on the available information. That’s not a bad guarantee!
The power of Monte Carlo simulation lies in the picture of possible outcomes it creates. Simply by running a simulation, @RISK for Project takes your project model from representing just one possible outcome to representing thousands. With @RISK for Project, you can answer questions like, “What is the probability of completing this milestone on time and under budget?” or “What are the chances that this project phase will be completed by this day?”
Define Uncertainty with Ease
Replace uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK probability distribution functions. You’ve probably heard of some of these, such as normal (“bell curve”), uniform, and triangular distributions. Choosing which @RISK distribution function to use is easy. @RISK for Project comes with a distribution viewer that lets you preview various distributions before selecting them. You can also use your own historical data and @RISK for Project’s integrated data fitting tool to select the best function and the right parameters.
Present Results with Stunning Graphs
@RISK for Project provides a wide range of graphs for interpreting and presenting your results to others. The @RISK Gantt Chart lets you see simulation results directly in Project’s native Gantt Chart. Histograms and cumulative curves show the probability of different outcomes occurring. Use overlay and summary graphs for more advanced comparisons. Right-click menus and handy toolbars make navigation a snap. You can also generate a one-page, ready-to-print Quick Report of statistical results and graphs!
Identify the Most Important Tasks
@RISK for Project provides you with Sensitivity and Scenario Analyses to determine the critical factors in your models. Use Sensitivity Analysis to rank the uncertain factors in your model according to the impact they have on your outputs. See the results clearly with an easy-to-interpret Tornado diagram, then take appropriate management action.
Conditional Modeling and Contingency Planning
The Professional version of @RISK for Project includes a set of branching features that enable you to build in contingency plans if certain events occur. Account for chance events in your model with ease.
PMI recommends Monte Carlo simulation software tools such as @RISK for Project for quantitative risk analysis. Palisade Corporation is a PMI Registered Education Provider, so Project Management Professionals who attend Palisade training seminars can earn valuable Professional Development Units.